Readers of last month’s blog about Daniel Kahneman’s work in decision making suggested I read this book and Michael Lewis latest, “The Undoing Project”, which is about DK’s work. I trust Lewis’ will be more readable as Superforecasting is well, but academically written. It’s still worth the slog if only due to two great findings from many years of research through what Tetlock titled the “Good Judgment Project”. First, and foremost in my view, is that teams of forecasters are more dependable than one so-called genius. And secondly, that the traits of good leaders conflict with the traits of good forecasters. That’s quite reassuring to me since my most enduring thought of leadership is collecting strength from diversity rather than gaining consensus for one’s own brilliance.
